研报 | 2026年第一季度存储器价格全面上涨，各类产品季增幅度将创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI and data centers is intensifying, leading to a significant imbalance in the global memory supply and demand, resulting in increased pricing power for manufacturers [3][4]. Price Adjustments - The price forecast for Conventional DRAM contracts has been revised from a quarterly increase of 55-60% to 90-95%, while NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted from 33-38% to 55-60% for Q1 2026 [3][4]. - Specific price increases for various DRAM types are as follows: - PC DRAM: Expected to increase by 105-110% [6]. - Server DRAM: Anticipated to rise by 88-93% [6]. - Mobile DRAM (LPDDR4X): Projected to increase by 88-93% [6]. - Total DRAM: Conventional DRAM expected to rise by 90-95% [6]. - Total NAND Flash: Expected to increase by 55-60% [6]. Market Insights - The PC DRAM market is experiencing a supply shortage, with prices expected to rise over 100% in Q1 2026, marking a historical high [8]. - The Server DRAM market is seeing significant price increases, with expectations of a 90% rise due to strong demand from North American and Chinese cloud service providers [8]. - The Mobile DRAM market is also facing a supply-demand gap, leading to anticipated price increases of around 90% for both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X [9]. NAND Flash Market Dynamics - Despite high demand for NAND Flash, manufacturers are prioritizing DRAM production due to better profit prospects, which is constraining new NAND Flash capacity [9]. - Short-term capacity bottlenecks are expected to persist, limiting the ability to meet demand [9]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for high-performance storage devices is surging, particularly from North American cloud service providers, leading to a forecasted price increase of 53-58% for Enterprise SSDs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly increase on record [10].