36氪·2026-02-02 09:39Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese coffee market, highlighting the end of Kudi's 9.9 yuan unlimited drink promotion and its implications for pricing strategies among coffee brands in China [5][11][16]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese coffee market has rapidly developed over the past decade, with a market size reaching hundreds of billions and over 100 million coffee users established [7]. - Kudi's pricing strategy has significantly influenced consumer perceptions, establishing a price anchor of 9.9 yuan for quality coffee [10][9]. - The end of Kudi's promotion marks a shift in the competitive landscape, where price is no longer the sole competitive factor, leading to a focus on brand and product differentiation [8][28]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major coffee brands in China, including Luckin and Kudi, have entered the "ten-thousand store era," with Luckin surpassing 30,000 stores and Kudi rapidly expanding to over 18,000 stores within two years [24][27]. - The competitive environment is shifting towards refined operations, emphasizing user retention and profit maximization rather than just scale [31]. - The emergence of a supply crisis due to adverse weather in Brazil is expected to increase coffee prices, providing a basis for price adjustments that consumers may accept [31]. Group 3: Future Projections - The number of coffee drinkers in China is projected to grow from 130 million in 2023 to 260 million by 2026, indicating a robust market expansion [23]. - The Chinese fresh coffee market is expected to grow from 151.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 383.6 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.4% [23]. - The current pricing adjustments and market dynamics may present an opportunity for the entire coffee industry in China to upgrade and adapt to new consumer expectations [31].