【智能汽车主线周报】特斯拉FSD订阅量达到110万，看好智能化

Investment Highlights - The smart car index decreased by 1.3%, while the index excluding Tesla increased by 1.9%, and the index excluding complete vehicles fell by 7.1% as of January 30, 2026 [4][10] - The smart car index PS (TTM) is at 15.2x, placing it in the 99th percentile since the beginning of 2023; the index excluding Tesla is at 5.9x, in the 83rd percentile; and the index excluding complete vehicles is at 9.9x, in the 81st percentile [4][17] Industry Core Changes - By Q4 2025, Tesla's FSD subscription is expected to reach 1.1 million [5] - Key personnel changes include Qianli Technology's Yin Qi becoming the chairman of Jueyue Xingchen [5] - Partnerships formed include Xiaoma Zhixing collaborating with Aite Boda, and Hezhima Intelligent signing a strategic agreement with Baidu's Luobo Kuaipao to build a driverless ecosystem [5] - The latest tracking of North American Robotaxi shows a total of 7.49 billion miles driven by FSD as of January 30, 2026, with Waymo having 96,090 daily active users as of January 27, 2026 [5][25] Current Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on the 2026 L4 RoboX main line, favoring B-end software stocks over C-end hardware stocks [6] - Preferred H-shares include Xiaopeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Xiaoma Zhixing, Wenyan Zhixing, and Cao Cao Mobility; A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hengrun [6] - Downstream application-related stocks include: - Robotaxi perspective: Integrated models like Tesla and Xiaopeng Motors; technology providers with revenue-sharing models like Horizon, Baidu, Xiaoma Zhixing, Wenyan Zhixing, and Qianli Technology; transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services like Didi, Cao Cao Mobility, and others [6] - Robovan perspective: Desay SV and Jiushi Intelligent [6] - Other autonomous vehicle perspectives: mining trucks (Xidi Zhijia), ports (Jingwei Hengrun), sanitation vehicles (Yingfeng Environment), and buses (Wenyan Zhixing) [6] - Upstream supply chain-related stocks include: - B-end driverless vehicle OEMs like BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, Jiangling Motors, and Tongli Co [6] - Core upstream suppliers: testing services (China Automotive Research, China Automotive Technology), chips (Horizon Robotics, Hezhima Intelligent), domain controllers (Desay SV, Jingwei Hengrun), sensors (Sunny Optical Technology, Hesai, Suteng Juchuang), steer-by-wire chassis (Bertley, Nexperia, Zhejiang Shibao), and glass (Fuyao Glass) [6]