【招银研究】黄金短跌不改长牛，A股二月胜率占优——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2026.2.2-2.6）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes, particularly focusing on the implications for gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the stock market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market experienced significant volatility last week, with the dollar dropping sharply due to rumors of potential intervention by Japan and the U.S., leading to a surge in gold prices, which approached $5,600 per ounce [2]. - Following the denial of intervention rumors and the nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair, the dollar rebounded, causing gold to drop sharply, with a single-day decline exceeding 9% [2]. - The U.S. Treasury market remains stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield rebounding to 4.2-4.3%, highlighting the value of mid-term bonds over long-term ones [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market saw a slight increase, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.3% while the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%, influenced by tech giants facing challenges due to high AI investment and supply chain constraints [3]. - The article suggests that the U.S. stock market is consolidating its fundamentals, preparing for the next upward movement, supported by strong corporate earnings across various sectors [3]. - Despite high valuation levels limiting expansion, robust corporate earnings are expected to drive the market back into a bullish trend [3]. Group 3: Currency and Gold Analysis - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a gradual appreciation due to the divergence in monetary policies between China and the U.S., alongside a significant trade surplus projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025 [4]. - Short-term adjustments in gold prices are anticipated, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Fed [5]. - The article emphasizes that gold will likely remain a preferred safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties and that institutional demand for gold is still not at peak levels [5].