热点思考 | 地方“两会”观察：二十省市，三大特征（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The average GDP growth target for 2026 set by twenty provinces is 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the 2025 target, but an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the actual growth rate in 2025 [2][11][44] - Eight regions, including Beijing and Shandong, have set their GDP growth targets at around 5% or higher, while Hainan and Xinjiang lead with targets of approximately 6% and 5.5%-6%, respectively [2][11][44] - Economic powerhouses like Guangdong, Henan, and Zhejiang have adopted a more positive tone in their reports, emphasizing the goal of achieving better results in actual work [3][11][44] Group 2 - Investment growth targets show significant regional differentiation, with western regions like Xinjiang setting a high target of around 8%, while coastal provinces generally target around 5% [4][15][44] - Most regions have set their retail sales growth targets higher than the actual performance in 2025, with notable increases in targets for Henan and Xinjiang, while Hebei and Guangdong maintain targets around 5% [20][44] Group 3 - Employment remains a priority, with provinces like Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan setting targets for over 1 million new urban jobs, reflecting a strong focus on job creation [5][27][40] - Environmental indicators are becoming more stringent, with regions like Beijing and Shandong specifying PM2.5 concentration control targets [5][27][40] Group 4 - The expansion of domestic demand is a primary task, shifting from traditional physical consumption to a balance of physical and service consumption, with policies like "old-for-new" becoming normalized [6][29][44] - Service consumption is being elevated, with various regions focusing on "first-release economy" and "silver economy" to create new demand [6][29][44] - The concept of "new quality productivity" is gaining attention, with regions leveraging their unique advantages for differentiated development, such as Beijing focusing on AI and quantum technology, and Zhejiang aiming for integrated circuit clusters [6][29][44]