国泰海通证券研究·2026-02-03 00:06Core Viewpoint - The stance of Kevin Warsh on interest rate cuts is more dovish and certain; China's policy focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is prioritized as a key task for 2026. After a significant drop, investment opportunities are emerging, and the market is expected to stabilize. Emerging technologies are a main theme, and value investments will also see a revival [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Following a recent significant decline, the Chinese market is expected to gradually stabilize, presenting investment opportunities. The average stock price across the A-share market has adjusted by 6%, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 4000 points, experiencing panic selling in the afternoon. The market downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including the assessment of Warsh's policy stance, which raises concerns about financial conditions tightening due to his inclination towards "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" [3][4]. - The market is quickly pricing in the risks associated with the U.S. "balance sheet reduction," but Warsh's stance on rate cuts is viewed as more dovish and certain. The consensus formed in the market may be subject to correction, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is influenced by economic and political environments, particularly given the significant fiscal deficit and debt levels in the U.S. [4]. Group 2: Policy Shifts in China - China's policy focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which has become a primary task. Over the past five years, domestic demand growth has significantly declined, with real estate investment dropping by 45%, sales area down by 50%, and housing prices falling by 30%. In light of complex international conditions and domestic growth pressures, the emphasis on domestic demand policy is timely. Recent statements from Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Davos Forum highlight this shift, indicating that domestic demand will be prioritized in economic work for the year [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are emerging, particularly in the realm of emerging technologies, as the iteration of overseas AI agents accelerates and domestic large models and applications gain traction. Recommended sectors include Hong Kong stocks in internet, media, computing, robotics, and electronics. Additionally, expanding domestic demand is expected to be a crucial growth driver, with market expectations and holdings currently at a low point. Recommended sectors for value investments include food and beverage, consumer services, aviation, as well as chemicals, real estate, and building materials. The financial sector is also highlighted as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6].