深度专题 | QE时代的终结——美联储资产负债表分析框架（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair and his proposed policy of "rate cuts + balance sheet normalization," highlighting the complexities and contradictions of this approach in the context of the current monetary policy landscape [1]. Group 1: Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has undergone significant balance sheet expansion, implementing four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and two rounds of quantitative tightening (QT) [2]. - As of November 2025, the Federal Reserve's total assets reached $6.6 trillion, which is over seven times the level in early 2008 and 1.7 times the level at the end of QT1 in September 2019 [2]. - The December 2025 FOMC meeting marked the beginning of a "normalization of expansion" phase, with initial monthly purchases set at $40 billion, potentially slowing to $20-25 billion by May [2]. Group 2: RMP vs. QE - RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) is fundamentally different from QE in terms of quantity, quality, and market implications; RMP aims to maintain sufficient reserve supply without affecting monetary policy stance, while QE is a non-standard tool aimed at lowering long-term interest rates [3]. - RMP operates under a "sufficient reserves" framework, contrasting with the "scarcity of reserves" approach used prior to the financial crisis, which relied on frequent open market operations to control interest rates [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Framework and Implications - The transition to a "sufficient reserves" framework has decoupled policy interest rates from reserve quantities, indicating that the policy interest rate remains the key indicator of monetary policy stance rather than the amount of reserves [5]. - The effectiveness of controlling interest rates, the cost of the balance sheet, and the frequency of open market operations present a "trilemma" for the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 4: End of the QE Era - The article posits that the QE era may have ended, with future monetary policy likely requiring a return to zero interest rates as a necessary condition for reinitiating QE or yield curve control (YCC) [6]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to shrink its balance sheet will depend on reserve demand and the duration of securities held, with zero interest rates being a critical factor for effective QE implementation [6]. Group 5: Market Implications - RMP's impact on capital markets is characterized as indirect and defensive, potentially reducing the likelihood of stock market sell-offs due to liquidity shocks, but not fundamentally altering market direction [7]. - The article suggests that attention should be focused on the dollar rather than the balance sheet in both the short and long term, as interest rates play a more significant role in a non-zero interest rate environment [1].