【有色】2026年1月中国电解铜产量创月度产量新高——铜行业周报（20260126-20260130）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].