【澳优（1717.HK）】因内码调整进度偏慢拖累，预计25H2业绩承压——2025年业绩前瞻（陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅）

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2025 is expected to be below expectations due to internal adjustments lagging and a deteriorating external industry environment [4][5]. Group 1: 2025 Performance Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, with a slowdown in growth primarily due to the domestic milk powder business [4]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to remain flat year-on-year in 2025, with a decline in profit in the second half of 2025 mainly due to slower internal code transition and intensified industry competition [4]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Performance - The internal code transition is lagging, with the completion date pushed from Q3 to Q4 2025, disrupting the growth rhythm of core business in the second half of the year [5]. - Increased competition in the industry, with several companies implementing subsidy or price reduction strategies, places the company in a passive position as it is in a price increase phase [5]. - The industry's revenue growth is slowing, which indirectly affects the company's internal code transition progress, making it difficult to achieve the single-digit revenue growth target for 2025 [5]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to see a moderate improvement in revenue growth in 2026 due to a low base and the completion of the internal code transition, with signs of improvement in market share for both goat and cow milk powder [6]. - The overseas business is anticipated to be a significant growth driver, with stable contributions from markets like the Middle East and Saudi Arabia, and plans to expand into Southeast Asia and North America [6]. - The company has successfully entered overseas pharmaceutical channels and is conducting local pharmaceutical research to enhance competitiveness in international markets, with expectations for rapid growth in overseas revenue in 2026 [6].