贵金属继续调整：申万期货早间评论-20260203

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a 9-day holiday aimed at boosting the holiday market, enriching cultural life, and stimulating consumer spending, as outlined in the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" released by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments [1] - The plan focuses on traditional cultural practices, family reunions, shopping, and travel, expanding the supply of quality goods and services to invigorate physical commerce [1] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)," aiming to establish a world-class metropolitan area centered around the capital [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, the main crude oil contract fell by 4.8% to 450 RMB per barrel, while gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 3.86% and 20% respectively, closing at 1045 RMB per gram and 20600 RMB per kilogram [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which strengthened the US dollar and led to profit-taking in the market [2][3] - The US crude oil production averaged 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [4] Group 3 - The US stock market showed a rebound with significant trading volume of 2.61 trillion RMB, driven by a combination of technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, and economic recovery [5][13] - The financing balance decreased by 23.543 billion RMB to 2.698689 trillion RMB, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [5][13] - The overall market outlook for February remains positive, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of investment projects [5][13]