早盘直击｜今日行情关注

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are becoming the main focus of short-term market trading, with Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair emphasizing the independence of the central bank and a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1] - Warsh advocates for a policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" and aims for institutional reforms to return monetary policy to a framework of monetary quantity control and institutional constraints [1] - The market consensus since 2025 has been a "weak dollar," and there is uncertainty about whether Warsh's policies can change market pricing logic, with short-term expectations of a strong dollar influencing commodity markets and risk assets [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a significant downward adjustment, breaking below the 30-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index is approaching the 60-day moving average after four consecutive days of decline [2] - Market trading volume has shrunk, with total trading amounting to approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, a substantial decrease from the average daily trading volume in January [1] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage and banking have been the main focus of market interest, while small-cap and technology stocks have seen larger declines [1]