股商波动剧烈，全球资源品大周期？丨周度量化观察

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the stock market, particularly in resource-related sectors, and highlights the ongoing global resource cycle, with a focus on investment opportunities and market dynamics [1]. Equity Market Summary - A-shares experienced a decline in prices but an increase in trading volume, with average daily trading exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Resource sectors such as oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture led the market, indicating a broad revaluation of physical assets [1]. - The CSI Value Index rose by 1.01%, while the CSI Growth Index fell by 0.59%. The Hang Seng Index outperformed A-shares with a 2.38% increase [1]. - The market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic until the Spring Festival, with rapid thematic rotations. Long-term investment strategies focusing on resource competition and technological self-reliance are recommended [4]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market remained stable, with the central bank supporting liquidity. Short-term bonds showed little volatility, while long-term bonds were relatively weaker. The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, but increased market speculation and volatility are anticipated [5]. Commodity Market Summary - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching historical highs before a technical correction. The volatility was driven by geopolitical risks and a strengthening dollar due to potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6]. - The South China Commodity Index rose by 2.60%, with notable increases in precious metals and energy sectors, while non-ferrous metals and black commodities saw declines [35]. Overseas Market Summary - The US stock market showed overall gains, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while the dollar weakened significantly due to political statements [2]. - The AI industry trend remains strong, with a focus on productivity and revenue growth, while traditional cycles are being monitored for recovery [7].