深度专题 | QE时代的终结——美联储资产负债表分析框架（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair and his proposed policy of "rate cuts + balance sheet normalization," highlighting the complexities and contradictions of this approach in the context of the current monetary policy landscape [1]. Group 1: Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and two rounds of quantitative tightening (QT), with total assets reaching $6.6 trillion by November 2025, which is over seven times the level in early 2008 [2][10]. - The December 2025 FOMC meeting marked the beginning of a "normalization of expansion" phase, with initial monthly purchases set at $40 billion, potentially slowing to $20-25 billion by May [2][10]. Group 2: RMP vs. QE - RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) is fundamentally different from QE in terms of quantity, quality, and market implications. RMP aims to maintain sufficient reserves without affecting the stance of monetary policy, while QE is a non-standard tool aimed at lowering long-term interest rates [3][41]. - RMP operates under a framework of "ample reserves," where the control of interest rates is decoupled from the quantity of reserves, contrasting with the previous "scarce reserves" framework [4][68]. Group 3: End of the QE Era - The article posits that the QE era may have ended, with future monetary policy likely to focus on maintaining sufficient reserves rather than expanding the balance sheet significantly. The ability to shrink the balance sheet depends on reserve demand and the duration of held securities [6][10]. - In a non-war or non-zero interest rate environment, it is unlikely that the Fed will use QE or yield curve control (YCC) to lower Treasury yields, as the most effective method to achieve this is to lower rates to zero [6][10]. Group 4: Market Implications - The article suggests that RMP's impact on capital markets should be rationally ignored, as it primarily serves to reduce the likelihood of liquidity shocks affecting stock prices rather than driving bullish sentiment [7][10]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion is now seen as a new normal, with cash and reserve provision methods including RMP and reinvestment of agency securities [33][10].