大跌超14%！超预期下滑！诺和诺德预计2026年销售恐降13%

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's Q4 sales decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, yet still surpassed analyst expectations, with the weight loss drug Wegovy performing better than anticipated. The company forecasts its first annual sales decline in nine years for this year, with projected sales and operating profit for 2026 expected to drop by 5% to 13%, compared to analyst estimates of a 1.4% and 3.1% decline respectively [1][3][6]. Sales Performance - In Q4, sales amounted to 79.14 billion Danish Krone, down 7.6% year-on-year but above the analyst forecast of 76.9 billion Danish Krone. Wegovy's sales reached 21.86 billion Danish Krone, exceeding the expected 21.07 billion Danish Krone, while Ozempic's annual sales were 127.09 billion Danish Krone, also above the forecast of 124.87 billion Danish Krone [15][12]. 2026 Sales Guidance - Novo Nordisk's guidance for 2026 indicates a significant sales and operating profit decline of 5% to 13% on a constant exchange rate basis, which is much worse than the analyst expectation of a 1.4% sales decline and a 3.1% drop in operating profit. This unexpected guidance has caused a strong market reaction [6][3][8]. Market Challenges - The company faces multiple pressures, including increased competition in the U.S. market and the impact of the U.S. government's "Most Favored Nation" pricing policy, which is expected to significantly lower actual prices. Additionally, changes in prescription trends and Medicaid's reduction of coverage for obesity drugs are compounding these challenges [5][8][11]. International Market Outlook - While the global GLP-1 market is expected to continue expanding, the company will face challenges from increased competition and the expiration of patents for semaglutide in certain markets. Novo Nordisk plans to launch Wegovy in more markets in 2026 and introduce a 7.2mg dosage in several countries [11][6]. Shareholder Returns - In response to the challenging year, Novo Nordisk's board has initiated a new share buyback program of up to 15 billion Danish Krone (approximately 2.4 billion USD) and proposed a final dividend of 7.95 Danish Krone per share, bringing the total expected dividend for 2025 to 11.70 Danish Krone per share [20].