【招银研究|区域点评】2025年入境游数据点评：沪深领跑全国，特色业态成为“流量密码”

Core Viewpoint - The inbound tourism market in China is expected to be a highlight of the consumer market by 2025, driven by the expansion of visa-free policies and the efforts of major cities to become leading destinations for inbound tourism [1] Group 1: Policy Benefits - The expansion of visa-free policies is creating a new regional landscape for inbound tourism, with the number of visa-free countries increasing to 48 and mutual visa exemptions to 29 by December 2025 [2] - In 2025, the total number of inbound and outbound foreign visitors is projected to rise to 82.04 million, with 73.1% of these being visa-free entrants [2] - The number of ports eligible for transit visa exemptions has increased to 65, and the areas for stay have expanded to 24 provinces, promoting a new pattern of "multi-point entry, cross-regional travel, and overall warming" in inbound tourism [5] Group 2: Key Cities - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are leading the way in inbound tourism, with Shanghai expected to receive 9.36 million inbound tourists in 2025, a nearly 40% increase from the previous year [6] - Shenzhen has seen a significant rise in inbound foreign visitors, surpassing traditional destinations like Beijing and Guangzhou, and is now ranked second [6] - Cities such as Chengdu and Zhangjiajie are also emerging as popular destinations, with Chengdu's inbound tourist numbers expected to grow by 54% in 2025 [6] Group 3: Inbound Tourism Trends - The inbound tourism experience is shifting from traditional sightseeing to more experiential and participatory activities, with cities adapting to these changes [6] - International flight capacity is a key factor in determining a city's inbound tourism potential, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou leading in international passenger traffic [9] - The optimization of tax refund policies and the construction of international consumption environments are enhancing the conversion of inbound tourist flow into consumption growth [11] Group 4: New Tourism Formats - New tourism formats such as cultural experiences, tech tourism, and medical tourism are emerging, enhancing the attractiveness of major cities for inbound tourists [15] - Cities are leveraging unique cultural and technological attributes to create new highlights in inbound tourism, such as Beijing's cultural workshops and Shenzhen's tech shopping experiences [15] - Marketing strategies and content creation are helping cities like Chengdu and Zhangjiajie gain international recognition and attract more visitors [16] Group 5: Outlook - The inbound tourism sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, supported by ongoing policy benefits and accelerated consumer conversion [17] - Major cities are likely to remain the primary destinations for inbound tourism, with new first-tier and popular cities also showing significant growth potential [17] - The trend towards diversified inbound tourism routes and experiences is anticipated to create opportunities for lesser-known destinations to gain popularity [17]