【播客】高盛：多省下调今年增长目标 全国GDP增速如何设定？

Group 1: Local "Two Sessions" Signals - The upcoming national "Two Sessions" will set the economic targets for 2026 and release the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline [1] Group 2: Economic Growth in 2025 and 2026 - In 2025, 55% of provinces achieved their growth targets, with a weighted average growth rate of 5.1%, slightly below the target of 5.3% [4] - For 2026, most provinces (19 out of 31) have lowered their growth targets, with the weighted average target expected to decrease to 5.1% from 5.3% in 2025 [4][7] - Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets at "around 5%", while Guangdong has lowered its target to "4.5%-5.0%" [5][6] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Targets - The inflation target for provinces is expected to remain around "2%", with the actual CPI average projected to rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [4] - Employment targets are anticipated to stay at "over 12 million new jobs" and an unemployment rate of "around 5.5%", aligning with the number of college graduates [4] Group 4: Fiscal Budget and Planning - The official deficit rate is expected to remain at 4%, with local government special bond quotas slightly increasing to 4.6 trillion yuan [4] - The broad fiscal deficit rate may expand to 12.0%, maintaining support for economic growth [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on technology, security, and livelihood, aiming for "high-quality development" and "high-level security" [4]