下一轮金融危机，会由沃什引爆吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's appointment as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, questioning whether he will adopt a hawkish stance on inflation or align with political pressures from Trump [2][3][5]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Views - Martin Wolf highlights Warsh's past statements and recent shifts in his positions to gauge future monetary policy directions [4]. - Warsh is characterized as a strong advocate for hard currency, expressing concerns about the Fed's credibility and independence in his 2010 speech [7][8]. - He emphasized that the Fed's independence should only apply to monetary policy, not regulatory or consumer protection roles [9]. Group 2: Critique of Current Fed Policies - In a 2025 speech, Warsh criticized the Fed for failing to maintain price stability and contributing to explosive federal spending [11][12]. - He warned against the dangers of fiscal dominance, where the central bank becomes the ultimate arbiter of fiscal policy, which he views as a significant risk [12]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Implications - The article raises questions about Trump's choice of Warsh, suggesting that Trump may appreciate Warsh's critical stance on the Fed's expansionary policies [14]. - Wolf notes that Warsh's recent conclusion that inflation is no longer a threat represents a significant shift from his earlier views during the 2010 recession [15]. Group 4: Potential Risks and Consequences - Wolf warns that Warsh's leadership could lead to another financial crisis due to the inherent contradictions in policy, such as fiscal expansion coupled with attempts to maintain monetary discipline [24]. - The article concludes that the market requires a Fed Chair who can resist political pressures, contrasting Warsh with the current chair, Powell, who has demonstrated independence [26].