比特币持续暴跌 预测市场押注今年跌至6.5万美元概率高达82%
美股IPO·2026-02-04 23:27

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin prices have been declining, reaching the lowest level since Trump's presidency, with further downside risks anticipated for the year based on market predictions [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Price Movement - Bitcoin has retraced approximately 40% since hitting a historical high of over $126,000 in October last year, currently priced around $73,200 [3] - The Polymarket platform indicates an 82% probability that Bitcoin will drop to $65,000 this year, which is about 13% lower than the current price [3] - There is a 60% chance of Bitcoin falling below $55,000, while the probability of it rebounding to $100,000 has decreased from 80% to 54% since the beginning of the year [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - The current market sentiment is predominantly bearish, reflecting a failure of Bitcoin to act as a safe-haven asset [4] - Following a significant market crash last October that led to the liquidation of billions in leveraged positions, the overall sentiment in the crypto market has remained low [4] - Recent sell-offs have further exacerbated the negative market outlook [4] Group 3: Market Capitalization and Investment Trends - The total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.5 trillion, down significantly from over $4 trillion last October [5] - The outflow of funds from crypto ETFs has been notable, with nearly $4 billion in net outflows over the past three months [5] - Analysts have observed that average traders are currently in a state of loss, indicating a challenging environment for investors [5] Group 4: Diverging Predictions - There is a stark contrast between the predictions from the prediction markets and some bullish views from Wall Street, with notable investors like Tom Lee previously forecasting Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 [5] - Despite some institutions lowering their forecasts, they still anticipate Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, betting on a significant market rebound [5]