【百度集团-SW（9888.HK）】广告业务企稳为主，AI云业务支撑中长期逻辑——2025年四季报业绩前瞻（付天姿/杨朋沛）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated performance of Baidu in Q4 2025, highlighting challenges in advertising revenue and a temporary slowdown in cloud business growth, while Non-GAAP profit recovery becomes a key marginal variable [4]. Group 1: Online Marketing Business - Baidu's advertising revenue is expected to be approximately 62.2 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.7%. The current advertising business is not a primary focus for the company, as traditional search advertising continues to lose its share in the revenue structure due to user attention being diverted to AI search and applications [5]. Group 2: Non-Online Marketing Business - The AI cloud revenue for Baidu is projected to reach around 27.2 billion yuan in 2025. The growth rate in Q4 2025 is expected to slow down sequentially due to seasonal factors and a high base effect, but this does not indicate a weakening demand trend. The core drivers of growth remain AI training and inference demand [6]. Group 3: Profitability - Following the completion of a one-time asset impairment in Q3 2025, there will be no further depreciation and amortization related to this impairment, which is expected to provide ongoing positive contributions to Non-GAAP operating profit starting from Q4 2025. Overall, the improvement in profitability is more reflective of accounting-level marginal recovery, while the operational fundamentals still await stabilization in revenue [7]. Group 4: Business Progress - Baidu has begun to disclose progress in AI applications separately since Q3 2025, covering various products such as document libraries, cloud storage, enterprise-level AI tools, and overseas products. The company maintains a positive outlook on the commercialization prospects of these applications, emphasizing their synergy with AI cloud and Kunlun chip. In terms of autonomous driving, the order volume for Robotaxi continues to grow rapidly, with partnerships established with Uber and Lyft, and plans for trial runs of driverless taxis in the UK, marking a significant step in international expansion. However, these businesses are still in the investment and scale expansion phase, contributing limited short-term earnings [8][9]. Group 5: Kunlun Chip - Kunlun chip, as an important part of Baidu's self-developed AI chip and computing platform, is gaining increasing market attention. It is deeply involved in the overall delivery of Baidu's intelligent cloud and is starting to target industries such as telecommunications, finance, energy, and manufacturing, becoming part of the "cloud + computing" solution. In early 2026, the company announced plans to spin off Kunlun chip for independent listing, aiming to enhance its image among customers, suppliers, and potential strategic partners, and to strengthen its position in business negotiations, allowing the company to benefit from Kunlun chip's growth through its retained shares [10].