深度丨开年经济与市场十大展望【陈兴团队·华福宏观】

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "tightening then loosening" monetary policy approach, with a potential for aggressive rate cuts in the second half of the year if Powell maintains a hawkish stance during his term [2][13] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken further, especially as the dollar index has fallen below 97, driven by a loose monetary policy environment and increased global demand for safety [2][14] Group 2 - The RMB exchange rate is entering a mid-term appreciation channel, with a potential to break above 6.8, aligning with current export growth trends [3][19] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rebalancing of external and internal demand, with policy shifts indicating a growing importance of domestic demand [4][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to grow, with policy support shifting towards the service sector, reflecting a recovery in consumer sentiment post-pandemic [5][22] - CPI is projected to show stronger elasticity compared to PPI, driven by a potential recovery in pork prices and sticky core CPI, particularly in service inflation [6][27] Group 4 - The central bank is likely to adopt a cautious approach to domestic monetary policy easing, focusing on structural tools to provide low-cost funding to support specific sectors [8][29] - The stock market is expected to reach new highs due to ample liquidity and a rebound in profit growth, despite the current economic challenges [9][31] Group 5 - The technology sector is predicted to maintain its momentum, supported by liquidity and a favorable investment environment, particularly in AI companies [10][34] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, bolstered by a weakening dollar and increased central bank purchases of gold [11][36]