研报 | 2026年第一季度MLCC市场呈两极分化，实体AI引爆高端需求，消费电子则陷成本寒冬

Core Viewpoint - The global MLCC industry is experiencing extreme differentiation in Q1 2026, with high-end MLCC demand surging due to the implementation of "Embedded AI," while mid-to-low-end MLCC faces operational pressures from seasonal effects and rising raw material costs [2][5]. Group 1: High-End MLCC Demand - High-end MLCC orders are robust, driven by demand from AI infrastructure, particularly from major CSPs like Amazon AWS and Google, leading to full capacity utilization among Japanese and Korean manufacturers such as Murata, SEMCO, and Taiyo Yuden, with capacity rates above 80% [3]. - Murata is expected to see a 20% to 25% quarter-on-quarter increase in high-end MLCC orders, maintaining full production lines due to its control over advanced packaging key materials [3]. - 2026 is viewed as the year of Embedded AI, with applications rapidly extending from cloud servers to robotics, autonomous vehicles, and smart glasses, which require a significant number of micro MLCCs [3]. Group 2: Mid-to-Low-End MLCC Challenges - The smartphone, laptop, and automotive markets are experiencing a downturn, leading to conservative operations among MLCC manufacturers focused on consumer-grade products, with average MLCC orders declining by 5% to 6% month-on-month since Q4 2025 [4]. - Manufacturers like Compal and Pegatron are reducing material procurement, resulting in capacity utilization rates between 60% and 70% and inventory adjustment days maintained at 60 to 75 days [4]. - Rising international metal prices have increased costs for passive components, with magnetic beads and resistors seeing price hikes of 15% to 20%, while MLCC production costs remain relatively stable due to lower copper content [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The supply chain in Q1 2026 is characterized by "AI heat, consumer cold," necessitating suppliers to actively position themselves in high-end AI products while strictly managing inventory and cost risks for traditional products [5].