高估的美元在走弱：人民币该如何应对

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the common belief that the renminbi will depreciate significantly upon achieving free convertibility is misguided. Instead, it suggests that the renminbi is undervalued and should be accelerated in its internationalization process, especially in the context of a weakening US dollar [1]. Group 1: Currency Valuation - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is used to assess the valuation levels of various currencies, indicating that the market exchange rates of developing countries' currencies, including the renminbi, are generally lower than their PPP rates [2][3]. - The renminbi's market exchange rate was 7.19 against the US dollar in June 2025, while its PPP rate is approximately 3.43, indicating a significant undervaluation [3]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Undervaluation - The primary reason for the long-term undervaluation of the renminbi is its weak liquidity, which limits its circulation and acceptance compared to other currencies [5]. - The renminbi's international payment share was only 2.89% as of May 2025, ranking it as the sixth-largest payment currency, while the US dollar accounts for over 40% [8][9]. - The geographical concentration of renminbi payments is primarily in Hong Kong, with only 2.9% occurring in the US, highlighting its limited global reach [10][12]. Group 3: Global Reserve Currency Status - The renminbi's share in global official reserves is low, with approximately $249.7 billion as of the end of 2024, accounting for only 2.2% of total reserves, making it the sixth-largest reserve currency [12][15]. - In contrast, the US dollar constitutes about 60% of global reserves, indicating a significant disparity in reserve currency status [15]. Group 4: Implications of Currency Internationalization - Accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi could enhance its global demand and liquidity, potentially leading to an appreciation of its value [31][34]. - The article suggests that increasing the renminbi's share in global reserves from around 2% to 10% could lead to a reduction in M2 growth, as more renminbi would be held abroad [34]. - The need for financial market openness is emphasized as a means to enhance the renminbi's credit rating and international acceptance, which are crucial for its transformation into a strong currency [35].