Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global fiscal policies are shifting towards expansionary measures, driven by geopolitical and security concerns, which may redefine the boundaries of monetary independence and debt sustainability [1][9]. Group 2 - In 2025, global fiscal policies in the US, Europe, and Japan are transitioning from counter-cyclical to cross-cyclical, with a significant expansion of fiscal goals to include supply-side restructuring and defense spending [2][10]. - The constraints on fiscal expansion are weakening, as political pressures reduce the motivation for debt restraint, and the risk of debt default is low for developed sovereign currency nations [2][24]. Group 3 - By 2026, fiscal policies in developed economies will focus on supply-side investments, particularly in defense, AI, and infrastructure, marking a shift from traditional demand-side fiscal measures [3][52]. - The fiscal impulse in 2026 is expected to be stronger than in typical non-recession years, with Japan's deficit rate projected to rise to 3.2%, the US to 6.8%, and Germany to 4.0% [3][93]. Group 4 - The expansion of fiscal policies is characterized by a focus on defense spending, with Germany's defense budget expected to increase by 25% and the US by 10% in 2026 [3][71]. - The US will implement significant tax cuts, with a total reduction of $396 billion in 2026, a 47.7% increase from 2025, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [61][64]. Group 5 - The dual nature of expansionary fiscal policies presents both growth opportunities and risks, as the accumulation of debt may challenge the independence of central banks [5][112]. - The economic recovery driven by fiscal expansion may not follow traditional patterns, as the reliance on government support could lead to increased systemic risks and a divergence between public and private sector growth [5][125].
深度专题| 繁荣的代价：全球财政的双重叙事——“大财政”系列之三（申万宏观·赵伟团队）
申万宏源宏观·2026-02-05 05:37