热门赛道速递｜A股市场“春节效应”大数据观察，这些赛道值得关注！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Spring Festival Effect" in the A-share market, emphasizing that it is not merely about price increases or decreases, but rather about market rhythm and style shifts during this period [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Historical data from 2015 to 2025 indicates that the A-share market exhibits systematic and quantifiable characteristics around the Spring Festival, particularly in overall trends and style rotations [5]. - Pre-festival, market sentiment is generally stable, with the average increase of the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index being approximately 0.62% and 0.77% respectively in the last five trading days before the festival, and an upward probability of about 63.6% [6][11]. - Post-festival, the market often enters a sustained upward phase, with the average increase of major indices turning positive within the first ten trading days after the festival, showing an upward probability of 72.7% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 81.8% for the CSI 1000 Index [11][12]. Group 2: Style Rotation - There is a clear rotation in market style before and after the Spring Festival. Before the festival, larger-cap stocks tend to outperform due to lower trading activity and higher certainty in earnings, as indicated by the better performance of the CSI 300 Index compared to the CSI 1000 Index [13][15]. - After the festival, the market sees a significant reversal in style, with the CSI 1000 Index showing an average increase of 2.47% in the first five trading days post-festival, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which only saw a marginal increase of 0.01% [15][16]. - This shift indicates a return of funds and an increase in risk appetite, with investors favoring smaller-cap growth stocks that are more sensitive to liquidity [15][20]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - For the 2026 Spring Festival, the report suggests a high probability of a phase of market recovery post-festival, driven by valuation levels, policy expectations, and capital inflows, although the path may be more complex than in previous years [18][19]. - The rotation logic of preferring defensive large-cap stocks before the festival and more elastic assets afterward remains relevant, with a focus on sectors that align with current policy support for technological innovation and new production capabilities [20][21]. - Key sectors to watch post-festival include artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from strong policy drivers and high industry growth [21][22].