东吴汽车黄细里团队·2026-02-05 11:37Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential for L4 autonomous driving commercialization in North America, with regulatory changes allowing for a significant increase in vehicle deployment limits from 2,500 to 90,000 units. It highlights Tesla's launch of a no-safety-driver Robotaxi service in Austin and the advancements in L2-L3 autonomous driving technologies by various companies [3][10]. Investment Highlights - January's summary indicates that L4 commercialization in North America may be relaxed, with discussions on increasing the annual deployment cap for vehicles without traditional controls. Tesla has launched a no-safety-driver Robotaxi in Austin and plans to eliminate the FSD buyout model. In the L2-L3 segment, Nvidia has released an open-source autonomous driving model, Alpamayo, while companies like WeRide and Qianli Technology are launching or upgrading end-to-end solutions [3][10]. - February's focus is on monitoring the implementation of overseas L4 policies and the user experience of domestic L2-L3 intelligent vehicles. The results of the U.S. hearings are crucial, as they may lead to unified federal and state regulations. Tesla's no-safety-driver service will be closely observed for safety and reliability during this critical period [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong outlook for the L4 RoboX theme by 2026, favoring B-end software companies over C-end hardware firms. Preferred H-shares include Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, WeRide, Cao Cao Mobility, and Black Sesame Intelligence, while A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hirain [5][10]. - Downstream application-related stocks are categorized into three perspectives: - Robotaxi perspective includes integrated models like Tesla and Xpeng Motors, and technology providers with revenue-sharing models such as Horizon Robotics and Baidu [5][10]. - Robovan perspective includes Desay SV and other emerging companies [6][10]. - Other autonomous vehicle perspectives cover mining trucks, ports, sanitation vehicles, and buses [6][10]. Supply Chain Insights - The upstream supply chain includes B-end autonomous vehicle OEMs like BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, and Jiangling Motors, as well as core suppliers for testing services, chips, domain controllers, sensors, and other components [6][10]. - Key suppliers for chips include Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame Intelligence, while domain controllers involve Desay SV and other companies [6][10]. Key Events Summary - Significant events in January include Nvidia's release of the open-source autonomous driving model Alpamayo and discussions in the U.S. regarding regulatory changes for autonomous vehicles. Tesla's FSD v14.2 achieved a milestone of 2 days and 20 hours of zero intervention driving across the U.S. [46][10].