中泰资管天团 | 唐军：如何捕捉“预期差”？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of capturing "expectation differences" as a tactical asset allocation strategy, which can provide opportunities for short to medium-term investments, despite skepticism from some professional investors regarding this framework [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Capturing "Expectation Differences" - The macroeconomic fundamentals determine strategic asset allocation, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities, making the "expectation difference" framework reasonable [2]. - Short-term price fluctuations are more random and difficult to predict, but tactical allocations can enhance portfolio stability and improve investor experience [2]. - Even if capturing "expectation differences" is challenging, as long as the long-term win rate exceeds 50%, it can significantly contribute to reducing portfolio volatility and enhancing returns [2]. Group 2: How to Capture "Expectation Differences" - Capturing "expectation differences" involves tracking fundamental changes in specific asset classes and assessing market expectations [4]. - Fundamental tracking can utilize industry indicators such as inventory levels, supply-demand gaps, capacity utilization, and price differentials of products and raw materials [4]. - Market sentiment can be evaluated through metrics like trading volume, relative price changes, margin buying ratios, and fund allocation levels [4]. Group 3: Examples of Capturing "Expectation Differences" - In May 2025, the aluminum industry showed a significant profit increase, while analysts expected a growth rate around 0%, indicating a positive "expectation difference" [7]. - By June 2025, bank stocks were highly sought after, but analysts downgraded EPS expectations, creating a negative "expectation difference" that led to a notable market correction [11]. - In the agricultural sector, monitoring the breeding sow inventory can indicate future price movements, with historical data showing instances of both positive and negative "expectation differences" based on market sentiment [14].