深度专题| 繁荣的代价：全球财政的双重叙事——“大财政”系列之三（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, overseas fiscal policies are expected to align with geopolitical factors, leading to a pro-cyclical expansion path. Fiscal policy is both a driver of economic resilience and a source of debt risk. The current debt situation is overextending future growth capabilities, and how to address this debt will determine the boundaries of monetary independence [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Shift - In 2025, fiscal policies in the US, Europe, and Japan are transitioning from counter-cyclical to cross-cyclical, with a significant expansion of fiscal goals to include supply-side restructuring and defense spending. This shift indicates a more rigid approach to debt expansion [2][3]. - The constraints on fiscal expansion are weakening, as political and geopolitical pressures reduce the motivation for parties to impose debt limits. The risk of debt default is low for developed sovereign currency countries, transforming debt risk into liquidity risk, reflected in rising inflation expectations and interest rates [2][3]. Group 2: Fiscal Expansion in 2026 - In 2026, fiscal policies in the US, Europe, and Japan will see significant increases in defense spending, with Japan's deficit expected to rise by 0.8 percentage points to 3.2%, the US by 0.8 percentage points to 6.8%, and Germany by 0.9 percentage points to 4.0% [3][4]. - The focus of fiscal expansion will shift towards supply-side investments, particularly in defense, AI industry subsidies, and infrastructure investments, with defense spending in Germany expected to increase by 25% and in the US by 10% [3][4]. Group 3: Dual Nature of Fiscal Policy - The fiscal expansion will support economic growth in the US, Germany, and Japan, with the US expected to see a growth rate of 2.3% in 2026, driven by fiscal contributions of 0.5-0.6 percentage points [5][6]. - However, the accumulation of debt risks is also a concern, as the economic recovery is occurring alongside rising debt levels, leading to potential market disruptions [5][6]. Group 4: Implications for Monetary Policy - The methods for addressing fiscal issues will ultimately determine the boundaries of the Federal Reserve's independence. Traditional methods of debt reduction, such as fiscal consolidation and financial repression, face challenges in the current environment [6][7]. - The ongoing fiscal expansion may lead to a situation where monetary policy is increasingly influenced by fiscal decisions, eroding the independence of central banks [6][7].