2亿用户，撑不起Uber的自动驾驶梦

Core Viewpoint - Uber's recent financial report highlights significant growth in user engagement and bookings, but concerns over profitability and market competition have led to a decline in stock price despite positive operational metrics [6][12][13]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Uber reported a 22% increase in ride-hailing trips to 3.8 billion, with total bookings also rising 22% to $54.1 billion, and revenue growing 20% to $14 billion [6]. - Monthly active users reached a record 202 million, an 18% increase year-over-year, doubling from 100 million in 2019 [7][8]. - Operating profit for Q4 2025 was $1.77 billion, a 130% increase, but fell short of analyst expectations of $1.85 billion by $80 million [18]. Growth Drivers - The growth in bookings was attributed to new products and services, including the Uber One subscription service and expanded offerings in holiday travel and airport transportation [17]. - The food delivery segment also performed well, capturing market share from competitors by introducing more non-food merchants and increasing discounts [17]. Profitability Concerns - Despite revenue growth, Uber's profitability remains a concern, with significant losses from investments in companies like Lucid and Grab leading to a $1.6 billion write-down [19]. - The company anticipates a higher effective tax rate of 22%-25% in 2026, which could further pressure profit margins [22]. Autonomous Driving Strategy - Uber views autonomous driving as a key future growth area, investing heavily and forming partnerships with various technology firms [25][26]. - The company plans to deploy 25,000 autonomous vehicles on its platform and expand services to 15 global markets by the end of 2026 [28][30]. - Uber argues that its existing user base and operational experience will allow it to achieve better utilization and economic benefits from autonomous vehicles compared to independent operators [31]. Market Competition - The autonomous vehicle market is competitive, with companies like Waymo and Tesla advancing their own technologies, which poses a threat to Uber's strategy [42][44]. - Regulatory challenges in major cities may delay the rollout of autonomous services, impacting Uber's ability to capitalize on high-margin markets [46]. Investor Sentiment - Investor confidence is wavering, as the potential impact of autonomous vehicles on Uber's core business remains uncertain, leading to stock price volatility [47].