中金 | 氢基能源系列一：非电能源领域降碳重要路径，氢能产业或迎加速发展

Core Viewpoint - Hydrogen energy is an essential means for carbon reduction in non-electric energy sectors, and it is expected to accelerate development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period due to policy stimulation, technological advancements, and cost reductions [1][4]. Group 1: Hydrogen Energy as a Carbon Reduction Pathway - A portion of energy consumption cannot be replaced by electricity, necessitating alternative methods for carbon reduction in non-electric sectors. It is estimated that by 2060, 30% of energy will remain irreplaceable by electricity, indicating the need for new technologies like hydrogen energy [8]. - Hydrogen energy is considered a more viable solution compared to carbon capture and biomass due to its advantages in industrial development and technological iteration [8]. - The national policy framework has clearly defined the direction for renewable energy utilization in non-electric sectors, with hydrogen and green methanol being prioritized [8]. Group 2: Green Methanol and Its Market Potential - The shipping industry is driving demand for green methanol due to EU and IMO policies that impose carbon emission assessments, providing a green premium for methanol [11]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) aims for net-zero emissions in international shipping by around 2050, establishing legally binding measures to achieve this goal [11]. - The EU will include the shipping industry in its carbon emissions trading system starting in 2024, with increasing carbon quota submission requirements [12]. Group 3: Green Hydrogen Production and Electrolyzer Demand - The decline in electricity prices is expected to reduce the cost of green hydrogen production, leading to increased demand for electrolyzers [4][23]. - Current production costs for hydrogen from coal gasification, natural gas, and alkaline electrolysis are estimated at 9.3 CNY/kg, 17.8 CNY/kg, and 19.2 CNY/kg, respectively [23]. - The introduction of green electricity direct connection policies is anticipated to further lower the cost of green hydrogen production [27]. Group 4: Fuel Cell Vehicles and Market Dynamics - Fuel cell vehicles are transitioning from buses to commercial vehicles like heavy trucks, with policies enhancing their economic viability [34]. - The market for fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the heavy-duty vehicle segment, as they are better suited for long-distance and heavy-load transportation [38]. - The competitive landscape for fuel cell systems is concentrated, with a few companies dominating the market share [43].