“国家债务庞氏化”，将给我们带来什么

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing instability in the market due to the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which has shifted expectations regarding interest rate policies and raised concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability in developed economies [6][18]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The market initially expected a dovish Federal Reserve Chairman, but Warsh's hawkish stance on "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts" has led to a reversal in expectations, causing significant adjustments in risk assets [6][7]. - Following Warsh's appointment, risk assets like gold and silver experienced sharp declines, with gold dropping by 16% and silver by 39% [6]. - The article suggests that the real concern is not the change in leadership at the Federal Reserve but rather the long-term implications of fiscal debt becoming "Ponzi-like," where new debt is issued to roll over old debt, leading to increased supply pressure on long-term government bonds [6][20]. Group 2: Long-term Interest Rates and Debt Dynamics - Despite expectations of interest rate cuts starting in September 2024, long-term interest rates have continued to rise, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 4.9% [7][9]. - The article highlights that the rising yields are not indicative of a strengthening economy but rather a reflection of declining confidence in U.S. fiscal stability, necessitating higher rates to attract investors [32][35]. - The U.S. national debt has escalated dramatically, from approximately $3.2 trillion in 1990 to nearly $39 trillion by 2025, with no signs of abating [35]. Group 3: Asset Safety and Investment Strategies - Traditional safe assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, are losing their status as risk-free investments due to rising long-term yields, which inversely affect bond prices [38]. - The article posits that gold is becoming an increasingly attractive safe haven as fiscal expansion continues unchecked, with significant purchases by entities like Tether, which holds 140 tons of gold [21][24]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach to gold investments, suggesting strategies like dollar-cost averaging rather than making large, leveraged bets [42].