铜 | 行业动态：供需抽紧格局持续强化，短期调整迎来布局良机

Industry Overview - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced the need to improve the copper resource reserve system, coinciding with the U.S. launching a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan, including copper, to mitigate supply chain risks [1][2] - On February 2, domestic copper prices briefly fell, but downstream replenishment demand surged, with electrolytic copper and copper rod transaction volumes reaching 38,000 and 43,000 tons, respectively, marking increases of 108% and 198% compared to the previous period, hitting new highs in three months [1] Commentary - Both China and the U.S. have initiated copper resource reserve plans, indicating a sustained growth in strategic stockpiling demand. China is focusing on a combination of state and commercial storage models, considering both refined copper and copper concentrate [2] - The U.S. has seen a rapid increase in copper inventories at its two major exchanges, with LME copper inventory rising to 15,000 tons in just 11 trading days, and COMEX copper inventory reaching 530,000 tons, up 2% week-on-week [2] - The industry's replenishment is expected to support copper prices, with strong demand for low-priced copper amid low inventory levels and the upcoming spring peak season. Supply disruptions in overseas copper mines and low TC/RC levels may further tighten supply and push copper prices higher [2] - The long-term outlook for the copper industry remains bullish, with a significant increase in demand driven by insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade. The copper supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, potentially raising the price center. As of February 3, the Shenyin Wanguo copper industry PE (TTM) was 25.6 times, a 13% adjustment from the January 29 peak, positioned at the 31st percentile of the past decade's valuation levels [2]