比特币暴跌的元凶

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the record trading volume of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT, which reached an all-time high, raising concerns about forced liquidations due to high leverage positions held by hedge funds [2][4]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Price Movements - IBIT's trading volume exceeded 284 million shares on Thursday, with a nominal value surpassing $10 billion, marking a 169% increase from the previous record [2][7]. - The price of IBIT fell by 13% to around $36, the lowest since October 2024, with a year-to-date decline of 27% [2][4]. - The combination of record trading volume and price drop is often seen as a capitulation signal, indicating that long-term holders are giving up and liquidating their positions, suggesting a severe bear market phase [7]. Group 2: Redemption and Market Sentiment - On the same day, IBIT experienced redemptions totaling $175 million, accounting for 40% of the total net outflow of $434 million across 11 Bitcoin ETFs [4]. - The options market showed heightened fear, with put options trading at a premium over call options by more than 25 volatility points, a historical high [4][7]. - The total premium for long-term put options reached approximately $900 million, also a record [7]. Group 3: Hedge Fund Speculation - Speculation arises that the volatility may stem from large holders of IBIT, potentially non-crypto hedge funds, which might be attempting to reverse their positions through high-leverage options trading [8][10]. - The simultaneous decline in Bitcoin and stocks, along with relatively low liquidation volumes on centralized finance platforms, supports the theory of hedge fund-driven volatility [9]. - The delayed disclosure of holdings in 13F reports means that the full extent of these positions may not be revealed until mid-May, but the scale of the event suggests it cannot remain hidden for long [10][11].