【招银研究|行业点评】国网投资规划超预期，“主配微”协同带来金融服务机遇——国家电网“十五五”投资规划点评

Investment Overview - The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, representing a significant increase of 40% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, which exceeds previous market expectations of a 10%-20% growth [1][4] - The total investment from the three major grid companies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach around 5 trillion yuan, with the State Grid's investment alone projected at 4 trillion yuan [1][4] Investment Drivers - The increase in investment is driven by the mismatch in growth rates between source-side and grid-side investments, alongside the rigid demand for the continuous construction of a new power system [1][8] - During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of source-side investment was 22.7%, significantly outpacing the 6.8% growth rate of grid-side investment, leading to bottlenecks in cross-regional transmission capacity and local consumption space [1][8] Investment Structure Changes - The investment structure for the "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted from focusing primarily on the high-voltage backbone network to a collaborative development of the main grid, distribution network, and smart microgrid [1][8] - The investment in the main grid is expected to account for about 30% of the total investment, with an estimated amount of 1.2 trillion yuan, aimed at enhancing cross-regional transmission capabilities by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1][10] Distribution Network Investment - The investment in the distribution network is projected to reach around 2 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 50% of the total investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan," marking a 33% increase from the previous period [1][11] - The construction of the distribution network will cover urban, rural, and remote areas, enhancing flexibility and capacity to accommodate distributed renewable energy and meet the needs of 35 million charging facilities [1][11] Smart Microgrid and Digitalization - Investment in digitalization and smart microgrids is expected to account for 15%-20% of the total investment, with a clear focus on the development of smart microgrids for the first time [1][13] - The new grid platform will require continuous investment in digital infrastructure to support high levels of renewable energy integration and power electronics, with initiatives like the "Artificial Intelligence+" program being implemented [1][14]