【招银研究|权益策论】2月做多窗口，看好涨价+科技制造（2026年2月）

Market Overview - In January 2026, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. Chinese stocks performed moderately, while US stocks lagged behind [5][11] - The cyclical sector led the market, driven by rising commodity prices, particularly in energy and materials, while the financial sector underperformed [5][11] Core Themes - February marks a traditional bullish window for A-shares, with historical data showing a 76% probability of gains and an average increase of 3.4% [17] - Regulatory measures are limiting speculative trading, directing funds towards sectors with solid fundamentals. The focus is on core sectors with improving profitability, particularly in cyclical and technology manufacturing [21][22] A-share Market and Structural Analysis - The A-share market is expected to transition into a "slow bull" market, driven by profit improvement rather than valuation expansion. The liquidity environment remains relatively loose, supporting market growth [28][31] - The basic fundamentals are expected to strengthen, with corporate profits likely to improve due to policies aimed at reducing competition and stabilizing prices [28][30] Sector Focus - The main sector themes are price increases and technology manufacturing, with a focus on performance realization rather than speculative trends. The technology manufacturing sector is benefiting from the integration of AI and overseas expansion [36][38] - The cyclical sector, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, is expected to see significant profit recovery due to rising commodity prices [38] Growth and Value Dynamics - The growth-oriented ChiNext index is projected to outperform the value-oriented CSI 300 index, although the margin of outperformance is narrowing [47] - The proportion of companies with positive earnings forecasts is slightly improving, indicating a potential recovery in corporate profitability [22] Market Style and Trends - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform strongly in February, benefiting from a favorable environment due to limited IPOs and a focus on earnings reports [57][63] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its slow bull trend, supported by liquidity and the ongoing AI industry wave [64][65] US Market Outlook - The US market is consolidating its fundamentals, preparing for the next upward movement, with corporate earnings showing strong growth across various sectors [70] - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, maintaining core positions in technology while diversifying into cyclical sectors to capture potential excess returns [70]