国泰海通｜医药：美国医药调研及JPM大会后反馈

Macro and Industry Environment - The policy uncertainty has temporarily settled, and significant clinical data continues to be released, leading to a notable recovery in risk appetite for innovative drugs. The biotech and pharmaceutical sectors in the US stock market are expected to strengthen significantly by Q4 2025, with improved investor sentiment towards innovative drug investments in 2026 [1] - There has been heightened activity in MNC BD transactions around the JPM conference, with an increasing share and capability of Chinese innovative drug assets in global transactions, indicating their growing attractiveness in the global innovation ecosystem [1] Oncology - The certainty around PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies is rising, transitioning from "mechanism validation" to "clinical and industrial resonance." Multiple MNCs are advancing several global Phase III trials for high-value indications like NSCLC, with approvals and data readouts expected to be key catalysts within the year [1] - The Pan-RAS precision therapy is advancing systematically for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC in first-line, second-line, and combination therapies, with critical Phase III data anticipated in 2026, marking a significant realization period for this direction [1] Weight Management and Metabolism - In the context of limited insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket costs for obesity indications in the US, the cash-pay population is becoming a significant source for the GLP-1 market expansion. Pharmaceutical companies are actively enhancing accessibility through direct sales platforms, pricing adjustments, and multi-channel distribution to unleash demand elasticity [2] - The small nucleic acid approach in weight management represents a mid-term upgrade variable, with its potential to improve weight loss quality and fat distribution when combined with GLP-1, possibly evolving weight management treatment from a "single hormone-driven" to a "multi-pathway regulation" model [2] Autoimmunity - The concentration risk of MNC's major products in the autoimmune sector is becoming evident, with increasing reliance on a few blockbuster products. The income concentration risk is gradually surfacing against the backdrop of patent cycles and intensifying competition [2] - Incremental opportunities are emerging from two main paths: the new generation antibody platforms (dual antibodies/multi-antibodies, B cell depletion, etc.) are expected to yield dense POC data readouts in 2026, potentially triggering a new round of BD and asset revaluation [2] - The trend towards oral formulations is becoming clearer, with the long-term medication nature of autoimmune diseases providing natural advantages in adherence and differentiated competition for oral dosage forms. Various technological routes such as BTK, TYK2/JAK, oral PROTAC, oral cyclic peptides, and PDE4 are worth continuous tracking [2] CNS - The core investment theme in the CNS field remains focused on the advancement of A β monoclonal antibody treatment from early symptom populations to preclinical AD. Eli Lilly's Donanemab-related Phase III data is expected to be a key catalyst for opening up the "early intervention" market space [3] - Previous data indicates that populations with low to moderate tau and earlier stages show better efficacy and safety windows. Additionally, next-generation A β therapies, represented by Roche's Trontinemab, are expected to achieve stronger clearance effects and better safety at lower doses and shorter treatment durations, potentially raising the ceiling for AD treatment [3] - Systemic delivery of small nucleic acids and other new pathways are seen as supplementary directions, reflecting innovations in mid- to long-term delivery methods [3]