每周推荐 | QE时代的终结（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - The shift from a "scarce reserves" framework to a "ample reserves" framework has changed the operational approach of the Federal Reserve, where policy rates are now the primary indicator of monetary policy rather than the balance sheet [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The article suggests that a return to QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) may be necessary if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to zero, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis [3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not a one-way street; it can contract as well as expand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - The article notes that various provinces and cities in China have set GDP growth targets averaging 5.1% for 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [19]. - The targets indicate a slight downward adjustment compared to previous years, with some regions aiming for better-than-expected results [19].