每周推荐 | QE时代的终结（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet management [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from QE to QT - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - In December 2025, the FOMC meeting indicated a restart of reserve management purchases (RMO) to maintain sufficient reserves, emphasizing the fundamental differences between RMP and QE [2]. 2. Framework of the Balance Sheet - The Fed's policy framework shifted from a "scarce reserves" model to a "ample reserves" model post-2008 financial crisis, where policy rates serve as the primary indicator of monetary policy stance rather than the balance sheet [2]. - Under the "ample reserves" framework, policy rates and the balance sheet operate under separate decision-making systems [2]. 3. Conditions for Future QE - The article posits that a return to QE or yield curve control (YCC) may be necessary if the Fed lowers interest rates, suggesting that 2026 could mark the final phase of the current liquidity easing cycle [3]. - It argues that the Fed's balance sheet is not strictly a one-way street of expansion, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis arises [3]. 4. Observations from Local "Two Sessions" - The average GDP growth target for twenty provinces and cities is set at 5.1% for 2026, with various adjustments noted compared to 2025 targets [19]. - The article provides a detailed table of GDP growth targets, CPI targets, and other economic indicators for different provinces, reflecting a trend of slight downward adjustments in growth expectations [19].