深度｜木头姐2026展望：中美竞争最终的胜负取决于应用层；AI时代取得决定性优势的核心在于专有数据

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI and other technologies on global GDP growth, predicting an increase of over 7% by 2030, driven by the convergence of five key technologies [6][10][11] - Bitcoin's price target for 2030 has been raised to $1.5 million, highlighting its role as "digital gold" in both inflationary and deflationary environments [6] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the structural changes in GDP and the potential for a benign deflationary era due to technological advancements [6][12] AI and Economic Growth - AI is expected to be the largest catalyst for economic growth, with predictions indicating a significant acceleration in GDP growth rates [11][12] - The historical context of technological revolutions shows that each major innovation has led to substantial increases in GDP, suggesting that the current technological convergence could lead to similar outcomes [10][11] Investment Opportunities - The report anticipates a 35% annualized compound growth rate for disruptive innovation capital returns over the next five years, with companies like Tesla being highlighted as having the most potential [6][58] - The article suggests that the integration of AI and robotics will unlock previously unmeasured economic activities, potentially leading to a significant increase in GDP as these activities are accounted for [35][49] AI Infrastructure and Cost Dynamics - The cost of AI inference is rapidly declining, which could lead to explosive demand for AI capabilities, despite concerns about maintaining revenue for AI infrastructure [28][30][41] - The discussion includes the implications of decreasing costs in various sectors, including space technology and AI, and how this could affect GDP measurements [29][30] US-China AI Development Comparison - The article highlights the differences in AI development between the US and China, noting that China has embraced open-source models, which may give it a competitive edge [66][68] - The shift towards open-source in China is seen as a response to US companies halting software sales due to IP theft concerns, indicating a strategic pivot in AI development [68][69]