AI的故事，正在从「软件吞噬世界」，演变为「硬件被世界卡住」

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the overlooked risk in AI investments, particularly the potential inability to utilize massive capital expenditures due to political and physical constraints on data center construction and operation [4][8][12]. Group 1: Political Environment - A rare bipartisan consensus has emerged between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis regarding the need to halt the rapid increase of data centers, driven by public concerns over the negative impacts of AI [9][11]. - Public protests against data centers have intensified, citing issues such as noise pollution, water resource depletion, and rising electricity costs for local communities [11][12]. - Legislative actions are being proposed in various states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Virginia, to either eliminate tax incentives or impose moratoriums on new data center projects [11][12]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Market Dynamics - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, plan to spend approximately $670 billion on AI infrastructure, raising questions about whether this capital can be effectively deployed [15][17]. - The scale of this capital expenditure is comparable to historical projects like the Apollo program and the interstate highway system, indicating its significance in the U.S. economy [17][20]. - Amazon alone plans to increase its capital expenditure by nearly 60% to $200 billion this year, primarily for data center construction [17]. Group 3: Physical Constraints - The current U.S. electrical grid is unable to meet the anticipated energy demands of new data centers, which are projected to double their energy consumption by 2035 [20][21]. - In Texas, the ERCOT has proposed a review of approximately 8.2 gigawatts of power consumption projects, causing delays in previously approved data center projects [21]. - The uncertainty surrounding the electrical grid's capacity is jeopardizing the expansion plans of tech giants, leading to a potential failure to utilize the allocated $670 billion budget for AI development [21][22]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial markets have reacted sharply to the realization that the risk of "money not being spent" is becoming a reality, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks [22][26]. - Companies in the independent power producer sector, previously seen as beneficiaries of AI growth, have also suffered declines due to fears that new energy demands cannot be met [24][26]. - The market is facing a dilemma: either believe in the miraculous expansion of the electrical grid to accommodate the $600 billion in capital expenditures or acknowledge the physical limitations that could lead to a collapse of the AI investment bubble [22][26].