【广发宏观钟林楠】存款的流向

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "deposit migration" has gained traction again, particularly with a significant amount of high-interest fixed deposits maturing in 2026, which may lead to asset reallocation towards financial markets in a low-interest environment [1][4] Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Trends - Since 2022, the annual scale of maturing fixed deposits has reached new highs, with an annual increase of 4-7 trillion yuan; the total maturing fixed deposits in 2026 are estimated to be around 57-60 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5-8 trillion yuan [6][7] - The proportion of personal fixed deposits in state-owned banks accounts for 67% of total fixed deposits in these banks, and 50% of personal fixed deposits across all banks, which can be used to extrapolate data for the entire banking system [6] Group 2: Resident Behavior and Preferences - Despite low interest rates, many residents are likely to continue choosing fixed deposits, insurance, or early loan repayments after their deposits mature, as income expectations remain constrained and preserving value is a core concern for most savers [10][11] - The proportion of residents' fixed deposits is expected to be 73.4% in 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from 2024; the trend of early loan repayments is also significant, with personal housing loan reductions projected at 630 billion yuan, 490 billion yuan, and 670 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025 [10] Group 3: Investment Behavior Post-Maturity - The proportion of funds from maturing fixed deposits that will be reinvested into equity assets is expected to be relatively limited, as the current maturing deposits are primarily from low-risk preference funds that have already been filtered [13][14] - Historical data from Japan during the 1995-1996 period supports this view, where despite a peak in maturing deposits and low interest rates, residents increased their holdings in cash and low-risk assets rather than high-risk assets [14][16] Group 4: Observations on Financial Asset Allocation - The current trend of deposit migration began in Q3 2023 and is expected to continue until Q4 2025, with the proportion of deposits in residents' financial assets decreasing from 88% to 53-54% [19] - The remaining space for deposit migration is estimated to be around 1-2 percentage points, with the potential low point for the proportion of deposits in financial assets projected to be between 52% and 53% [19][20] Group 5: Broader Financial Market Considerations - For the equity market, deposits are just one potential source of liquidity; attention should also be given to disposable income after consumption and investments in non-financial assets, as well as allocations in insurance and bond-like assets [23] - The earning potential of bonds and insurance assets is expected to decline significantly by 2025, while the equity market may see improved earning potential, prompting high-net-worth individuals to adjust their asset allocations accordingly [23]