【广发宏观团队】2026年投资的相对弹性最大

Investment Outlook - The relative elasticity of investment is expected to be highest in 2026, with a projected rebound from a low base of -3.8% in 2025 to around 3% growth in 2026, potentially yielding an elasticity of 6-7 percentage points [3][4] - The Chinese government is focusing on effective investment to stabilize economic growth, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [28][29] - Guangdong province plans to increase its annual investment in key projects to 1.05 trillion yuan in 2026, up from 1 trillion yuan in 2025 and 2024 [2][3] Global Market Trends - Global stock markets are shifting towards "non-growth" assets, with a risk-off sentiment dominating pricing, leading to a focus on traditional economic sectors [5][6] - The U.S. stock market has shown significant differentiation, with defensive sectors like consumer staples and industrials leading, while technology stocks face pressure [5][6] - Commodity markets are experiencing high volatility, with gold and silver prices fluctuating significantly, while oil prices have also shown wide swings due to geopolitical factors [7][8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings dropping significantly, indicating a potential slowdown in economic momentum [14][15] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. is mixed, with current conditions improving slightly but future expectations declining due to concerns over inflation and job security [15][16] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its policy stance, indicating a period of observation without immediate changes to interest rates [12][13] Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is implementing measures to promote effective investment, including the use of central budget investments, special bonds, and policy financial tools [28][29] - Local governments are also adjusting their economic growth targets, with Guangdong aiming for a growth range of 4.5%-5% for 2026 [21][22] - Various provinces are introducing policies to stabilize the housing market, including purchasing second-hand homes for rental purposes and providing subsidies for homebuyers [23][24]