凯文·沃什的政策主张与落地难度｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump raises concerns about the potential for a tightening policy that may conflict with Trump's desire for lower interest rates, creating uncertainty in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Stance and Challenges - Warsh advocates for balance sheet reduction to curb inflation and create room for interest rate cuts, suggesting the cessation of purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to address liquidity excess [3]. - The potential for a tightening policy under Warsh could lead to a liquidity crisis in the market, as historical precedents indicate that previous balance sheet reductions have caused significant market disruptions [3][4]. - If Warsh is appointed, the Federal Reserve's short-term policy may lean dovish due to political pressures from the upcoming midterm elections, possibly prioritizing interest rate cuts over balance sheet reduction [3]. Group 2: Implications of Balance Sheet Reduction - A significant balance sheet reduction could lead to a sharp decline in asset prices, which is contrary to the interests of the Trump administration [4]. - The question arises regarding who would absorb the increasing debt of the U.S. government if the Federal Reserve proceeds with balance sheet reduction, given its current focus on purchasing U.S. Treasury securities [4]. Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data was not released due to a government shutdown, with the ADP data indicating only 22,000 jobs added in January 2026, significantly below the expected 45,000, marking the worst January performance in nearly five years [5]. Group 4: Central Bank Policies in Europe - Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) maintained their benchmark interest rates in February 2026, but their policy outlooks differ significantly [6][7]. - The BoE's decision to keep the rate at 3.75% was narrowly passed with a 5-4 vote, indicating potential for future rate cuts if inflation continues to decline [7]. - The ECB has kept its key rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, focusing on data-driven decisions to ensure medium-term inflation stability at 2% [8][9].