“钱花不出去！”——AI故事被忽视的风险，正急剧升温

Core Viewpoint - The narrative around AI is shifting from "software eating the world" to "hardware being constrained by the world," highlighting the political and physical limitations facing the expansion of data centers in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Political Environment - New York has proposed a bill to pause the construction and operation of new data centers for at least three years, marking it as the sixth state to consider such a measure [3] - There is a rare bipartisan agreement between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis on the need to slow down the rapid increase of data centers due to public concerns over their impact [3][4] - DeSantis has shifted his stance from supporting tax incentives for data centers to advocating for legislation that requires these centers to fully pay for their water and electricity costs [4] Group 2: Financial Implications - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion by 2026 is now under scrutiny due to political and physical constraints [6] - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, plan to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year, which is a significant investment [8] - Amazon alone is expected to increase its capital expenditure by nearly 60% to $200 billion this year [9] Group 3: Energy Demand and Infrastructure - Data centers' energy demand is projected to double by 2035, increasing from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW, equivalent to the electricity consumption of 80 million households [11] - In Texas, the ERCOT has proposed a review of approximately 8.2 GW of power consumption projects, which could significantly impact previously approved projects [12] - The uncertainty surrounding energy supply is jeopardizing the expansion plans of tech giants, as the inability to connect to the grid could prevent the realization of the $670 billion budget [12] Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial market has reacted sharply to the risk of capital expenditures not being realized, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks [13] - Independent power producers (IPPs) and nuclear power stocks have also seen declines, as the market realizes that without grid expansion, new power demands cannot be met [14] - There is a growing trend of funds moving from high-beta tech stocks to defensive sectors like chemicals and regional banks, indicating a shift in market sentiment [14][15]