我给追觅俞浩算了笔账

Core Viewpoint - The founder of Chasing, Yu Hao, has made ambitious claims about the company's future, including a goal of creating a trillion-dollar ecosystem in 20 years and achieving a revenue target of 1 trillion yuan in three years, which raises skepticism about the feasibility of these statements [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Revenue Projections - Yu Hao's claim of a trillion-dollar market valuation is questioned, as historical data shows that the highest market cap for U.S. companies has not reached this level, with projections indicating a maximum of 300 trillion yuan in total market cap in 20 years [6][7]. - Current revenue estimates for Chasing are unclear, with media reports suggesting figures ranging from 40 billion yuan to several hundred billion yuan, while comparisons with competitors indicate a more realistic revenue of around 200 billion yuan [8][9]. - The analysis of market share suggests that Chasing holds approximately 15% of the domestic market, leading to an estimated revenue of around 50 billion yuan domestically and 140 billion yuan from overseas, totaling 150-180 billion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Feasibility of Growth and Profitability - The assumption that Chasing can grow from a revenue of 200 billion yuan to 1 trillion yuan in three years is deemed unrealistic, especially considering the need for a tenfold increase in employee count while maintaining productivity [9][11]. - Even with a hypothetical net profit margin of 15%, achieving a market cap of 60 billion yuan would not position Yu Hao as the world's richest person, given the current wealth of the top billionaires [11][12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Direction - The home cleaning appliance market is described as highly competitive, with increasing marketing costs and decreasing sales prices, making it challenging for Chasing to maintain high profit margins [15]. - Yu Hao's strategy includes diversifying into various sectors such as smartphones and drones, which raises concerns about the sustainability of such rapid expansion in a highly competitive environment [14][15]. - The potential for new business ventures is seen as either a strategic extension of existing operations or a risky move that could jeopardize the company's future if not executed properly [26].