银行股迎结构性行情：大行回调、小行领跑

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown resilience and strength since early February 2026, driven by both fundamental improvements and capital inflows, with expectations for revenue and profit growth to gradually recover throughout the year [3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector has outperformed the broader market, with 42 A-share bank stocks rising collectively on February 5, 2026, particularly small and medium-sized banks like Xiamen Bank, which hit the daily limit, and Chongqing Bank, which rose over 5% [3][4]. - Over the past year, regional banks represented by city commercial banks have outperformed the industry average, with Xiamen Bank's stock rising 40.36%, Qingdao Bank 35.29%, and Ningbo Bank 32.91%, significantly surpassing the 22.36% increase of the CSI 300 index [6][4]. - In contrast, large state-owned banks have faced downward pressure, with notable declines such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank down 18.65% and Agricultural Bank of China down 13.15% [6][4]. Group 2: Fundamental and Capital Factors - The core factors supporting the rise in bank stocks are improvements in fundamentals, with 11 A-share banks reporting stable revenue and profit recovery for 2025, particularly city commercial banks like Qingdao Bank and Qilu Bank, which saw net profit growth exceeding 10% [7][8]. - Xiamen Bank reported a revenue of 5.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, and a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan, up 1.64%, with a loan growth of 18.39% [8][9]. - The banking sector has seen a net inflow of approximately 2.249 billion yuan in the past week, with a low average price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 times and a price-to-book ratio of about 0.52 times, making it attractive to long-term investors [10][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a shift in the logic behind bank stock investments, moving from defensive assets to actively managed positions, particularly for city commercial banks with strong regional advantages [12][11]. - Analysts believe that the banking sector is entering a new growth cycle in 2026, with expectations for net interest income to turn positive and continued inflows from long-term funds due to high dividend yields [13][12]. - However, not all banks are expected to benefit equally, as differences in regional economic foundations, asset structures, and management capabilities are becoming more pronounced in market valuations [13][12].