中金 • 全球研究 | 日本自民党大胜对资本市场影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese House of Representatives election resulted in a significant victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), securing 316 seats, which is over two-thirds of the total, indicating potential constitutional amendments in the long term, while short-term economic policies remain the priority [1][2]. Election Results - The LDP achieved 316 seats, up from 198, representing approximately 68% of the total 465 seats, marking the largest single-party representation since 1945 [1]. - The Komeito party, part of the ruling coalition, gained 36 seats, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, saw a significant drop to 49 seats from 167 [1]. - The National Democratic Party maintained its seat count at 28, and the Future Team party made a notable breakthrough with 11 seats [1]. Constitutional Amendment Possibility - The current political landscape allows for a potential constitutional amendment, as parties supporting such changes hold over two-thirds of the seats in both houses of parliament [2]. - However, the focus will likely remain on economic policies in the short term, as public concern centers around inflation and purchasing power [2]. Economic Policy Focus - The LDP's election manifesto emphasizes crisis management investments across various sectors, including technology, energy, and healthcare, aiming to enhance national resilience and competitiveness [2][3]. - Specific strategies include promoting Japan as a technology powerhouse, reducing dependency on specific countries, and ensuring supply chain security for critical resources [3]. Energy Security Measures - The manifesto outlines plans to restart nuclear power plants and maximize the use of renewable energy sources, aiming for a more diversified and self-sufficient energy structure [4]. - It also includes measures to regulate solar energy projects to balance development with local community and environmental needs [4]. Fiscal Responsibility - The LDP aims to achieve strong economic growth through bold investments while ensuring fiscal sustainability, with plans to reduce government debt as a percentage of GDP [4]. Market Impact - The election outcome is expected to lead to a significant rise in Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei index potentially surpassing 56,000 points [5]. - Japanese bond yields may rise in an orderly manner, with the LDP's victory suggesting a focus on responsible fiscal policies [6]. - The impact on U.S. Treasury yields is expected to be minimal, as Japan's holdings of U.S. debt are relatively small [7]. - There may be foreign exchange interventions if the yen depreciates excessively, with potential intervention levels around 158-160 yen per dollar [8]. - Global market sentiment may improve as a result of the election, reducing downward risks to capital prices [8]. Political Dynamics - Despite the LDP's strong position, concerns exist regarding the potential for overreach in policy implementation, drawing parallels to past political disappointments in Japan [9]. - Ongoing monitoring of cabinet approval ratings and financial market reactions will be crucial in shaping future policies [10].