机构研究周报：沃什或先鸽后鹰，商品波动收敛前不宜追高

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy under the new chair, with expectations of interest rate cuts before any balance sheet reduction, which may exceed market expectations [2] - There is a notable interest in Chinese assets from global investors, with several foreign institutions expressing optimism about their performance [1] Market Analysis - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has historically surpassed the 50,000 mark, indicating a shift in market sentiment from growth stocks to value stocks, with increased allocations to high-dividend and defensive consumer staples [1] - Citic Securities suggests that February will see high volatility in the market, with a tilt towards risk assets, making equity assets a more favorable choice [1] Sector Research - Guotai Junan highlights the commercial aerospace industry, particularly the potential of SpaceX's plans to launch a million satellites, which could lower operational costs and make space a viable option for AI computing [7] - Huaxia Fund notes that the transformer industry is entering a high-growth cycle due to surging demand from AI data centers and global grid upgrades, with a focus on solid-state transformers as the next generation [8] - HSBC Jintrust emphasizes the attractiveness of the Hong Kong tech sector, despite recent adjustments influenced by external factors rather than fundamentals [9] Macro and Fixed Income - Tianfeng Securities anticipates that short-term deposit rates will remain stable, with potential downward pressure following the end of the quarter [14] - Morgan Stanley believes that changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership will not significantly alter the policy response function, with potential rate cuts later in the year [15] Asset Allocation - Guotai Fund advises a diversified asset allocation strategy, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, commodities, and bonds, with a focus on both growth and cash flow assets [3] - The article suggests a continued emphasis on "outbound + technology" strategies, particularly in sectors benefiting from cyclical recovery and AI [18]