央行继续增持黄金：申万期货早间评论-20260209

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2307.57 tons) as of January 2026, up by 40,000 ounces (1.24 tons) from December 2025 [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the forecast of 212,000, indicating increased economic slowdown risks which may reduce energy demand [1] - The ongoing negotiations between Iran and the U.S. regarding nuclear issues have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of increased oil production from Venezuela [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have rebounded after significant volatility, primarily influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has cooled interest rate cut expectations and strengthened the dollar [2] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, with expectations that it will return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious regarding silver due to its higher volatility compared to gold, and the current gold-silver ratio being relatively low [2] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.83% amid indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S., with both parties agreeing to continue discussions [3] - Kazakhstan's oil exports are expected to decline by up to 35% in February due to slow recovery from a fire at the Tengiz oil field [3] - Copper prices rose by 1.39%, with tight supply conditions continuing, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [3] Group 4 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a dichotomy, with mainstream broad-based ETFs facing significant redemptions while thematic ETFs in sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals are gaining investor interest [8]