沃什力挺，影响深远！时隔75年，美联储又要和美国财政部达成协议了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of a new agreement between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, which could reshape their relationship and impact the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, raising concerns about central bank independence, inflation expectations, and the attractiveness of the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Proposed Agreement Details - The proposed agreement aims to clarify the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and align it with the Treasury's debt issuance plan [3][5]. - Treasury Secretary Yellen supports limiting the use of quantitative easing (QE) to emergency situations and under government coordination [3][6]. - There is debate among market participants about whether this is a minor bureaucratic adjustment or a significant restructuring of the Fed's $6 trillion securities portfolio [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Policy Implications - The proposal is reminiscent of the 1951 agreement, which limited the Fed's footprint in the bond market and established its independence in monetary policy [4]. - The Fed's recent actions, including massive securities purchases during crises, have been criticized for violating the principles established in the 1951 agreement [4]. Group 3: Asset Composition Shift - A significant aspect of the new agreement may involve a shift in the Fed's asset holdings from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [8][11]. - This shift could allow the Treasury to reduce the issuance of notes and bonds, potentially stabilizing borrowing costs [9][12]. Group 4: Market Risks and Concerns - The coordination between the Fed and Treasury could lead to increased market volatility and concerns about the Fed's independence, as it may tie monetary operations to fiscal deficits [13]. - Experts warn that if the agreement implies that the Treasury can rely on the Fed to purchase debt, it could undermine the Fed's inflation-fighting mandate and weaken the dollar's appeal [13][15]. Group 5: Skepticism About Formal Agreement - Some experts express skepticism about the likelihood of a formal agreement, suggesting that while cooperation may increase, it could also reduce the chances of a definitive arrangement [14][15]. - The potential for the Fed to exchange its mortgage-backed securities for Treasury bills is discussed, but this idea faces significant obstacles [14].