2026年展望：宏观经济、股票、基金、住房抵押贷款支持证券、商业抵押贷款支持证券及循环贷款工具的洞察分析

Macro Perspective - Despite global risks such as geopolitical tensions and potential economic recession, the severity of these risks is expected to be relatively low by 2026. Traditional valuation metrics show no strong evidence of bubbles in credit and equity markets [3][4] - Global financial conditions have steadily improved since the tariff increases in April 2025, with central banks indicating they do not intend to reduce balance sheets to pre-crisis levels, which helps mitigate financial stability risks [3] - Inflation remains above some central banks' targets, but there is little evidence suggesting a return to high inflation. If unemployment rises quickly in 2026, the Federal Reserve has room for further easing [3][4] Equity Market Outlook - The fundamentals for equities remain strong, supported by robust earnings performance, near-historical profit margins, and strong consumer demand. The "Magnificent-7" companies are expected to expand their earnings further [4][6] - The key risk in the equity market is investor patience regarding returns from artificial intelligence investments, as current valuations are close to levels seen during the internet bubble [6][7] Retail Consumer Sector - The LSEG retail/restaurant index predicts moderate growth in 2025, with revenue expected to increase by 5.9% and earnings by 4.6%, driven by strong consumer demand. Growth momentum is expected to accelerate in 2026, with earnings projected to grow by 10.9% and revenue by 5.8% [9] Fund Flows - In 2025, U.S. dollar money market funds dominated fund flows, driven by high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, maintaining yields above 4% to 5%. This attracted both U.S. and non-U.S. investors [12] - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) led stock market inflows, totaling $502 billion, while U.S. equity funds saw a significant drop in inflows compared to the previous year [12] Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) - The agency MBS market is expected to remain stable in 2026 due to steady issuance, moderate home price growth, and potential declines in mortgage rates. Recent policy measures may impact affordability and liquidity, but their effects remain uncertain [15] - The non-agency MBS market had a strong year in 2025, with issuance up 42% from 2024, driven by increased demand in the non-qualified mortgage sector [17][18] Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) - The institutional CMBS market performed strongly in 2025, with issuance up over 34%, supported by lower interest rates and a favorable financing environment. However, the multifamily sector showed signs of weakness with rising vacancy rates [20] - The non-institutional CMBS market achieved record issuance levels despite complex macroeconomic conditions, indicating a recovery in commercial real estate fundamentals [21]